Scenario analysis and catalysts
Base, upside, downside — with probability and impact stated humbly.
Scenario analysis and catalysts
| Concept | Explanation | |---|---| | Base case | Most likely outcome under current evidence. | | Upside case | Better growth, adoption, margins, or sentiment. | | Downside case | Weakening economics, adverse events, or valuation compression. | | Catalyst | Event that could change expectations or unlock value. | | Probability | Estimated likelihood, stated with humility. | | Impact | Magnitude of the outcome if the scenario occurs. |