Write the invalidation rule before the position is under pressure.
| Concept | Explanation | |---|---| | Confirmation | New evidence strengthens the thesis. | | Invalidation | A condition demonstrates that the thesis is no longer supported. | | Review trigger | Date, event, price condition, or data release requiring reassessment. | | Thesis drift | Changing the rationale after original evidence fails. | | Exit condition | Rule for reducing or closing exposure. |
Key idea: An invalidation rule should be written before the position is under pressure.