Base, bull, and bear cases with explicit exit criteria.
| Concept | Explanation | |---|---| | Base scenario | Most likely interpretation under current evidence. | | Bull scenario | Conditions supporting stronger upside or easing risk. | | Bear scenario | Conditions supporting deterioration or further downside. | | Catalyst | Event that may cause expectations to change. | | Invalidation | Evidence showing the interpretation is no longer supported. | | Review horizon | When the analysis should be reassessed. |