Valuation is a model of the future — every model embeds assumptions.
Valuation is a model of the future. Every model embeds assumptions about growth, profitability, capital needs, dilution, terminal value, discount rates, or token demand.
| Concept | Explanation | |---|---| | Base case | Most reasonable central scenario. | | Upside case | Better-than-expected growth, margins, adoption, or risk. | | Downside case | Weaker economics, competition, dilution, regulation, or execution. | | Sensitivity analysis | Tests how value changes when key assumptions change. | | Probability weighting | Combines scenarios using explicit estimated probabilities. |