One trade proves nothing — evaluate the decision, not just the result.
| Concept | Explanation | |---|---| | Good process, good outcome | Evidence and risk controls were sound, and the result was favorable. | | Good process, bad outcome | A reasonable decision encountered an adverse but possible outcome. | | Bad process, good outcome | Luck produced a gain despite weak analysis or excessive risk. | | Bad process, bad outcome | Weak process produced a predictable failure. |
One profitable trade does not validate a process, and one loss does not invalidate a disciplined strategy. Evaluation requires a meaningful sample and attention to how decisions were made.