Judging process by outcome and overweighting the recent past.
| Concept | Explanation | |---|---| | Overconfidence | Overestimating knowledge, forecasting skill, or control. | | Recency bias | Giving excessive weight to recent outcomes. | | Outcome bias | Judging a process only by whether it produced a gain or loss. | | Self-attribution | Crediting skill for gains and blaming circumstances for losses. | | Excess trading | Trading more frequently than the quality of evidence justifies. |